The U.K.’s annual rate of inflation returned to double digits in September, cementing expectations of another rise in the Bank of England’s key interest rate early next month even as the medium-term outlook for prices has been clouded by changes in government policy.

The sharp rise in world energy prices since military conflict in Ukraine has pushed the U.K.’s inflation rate to four-decade highs, and prompted the BOE to raise its key interest rate more aggressively than it had planned before the war.